Emerging Markets and Covid-19: Crisis or opportunity…or both?
2020 will be a challenging moment for Emerging Markets’ economies. But there will likely be a wide open Emerging Markets “door” that sees governments fall back on privatisation to bridge fiscal holes. In an environment of tight domestic monetary conditions and reduced cross border flows, the buyers of these assets have considerable advantage.

2020 will be a challenging moment for Emerging Markets’ economies. Not only is growth under threat, but fiscal dynamics will be challenged by lower tax collections and in some cases reducing natural resource rents.Some governments are going to face a protracted struggle to recover the gap generated by big fiscal deficits largely or partly financed by non-domestic flows.But there will likely be a wide open Emerging Markets “door”It is likely that governments will fall back on privatisation to bridge fiscal holes. In an environment of tight domestic monetary conditions and reduced cross border flows, the buyers of these assets have considerable advantage.Equally as the private sector becomes stressed by weak domestic demand, the private sector will be more open to foreign purchase of key assets. This was the case in Mexico post the 1994 peso devaluation, Asia after 1997-8, and Emerging Markets in general after 2008.Weak currencies and economies have provided excellent subsequent returns for foreign investors. General economic conditions and fiscal balances are more volatile as an offset, so that in turn will require a lower price entry point to justify reward for risk.
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